Given the pre-election polls, most states are pretty much a given. For example, if Texas shows up in a poll for Obama, there's really no point in voting for President (at least as far as the election outcome is concerned). It turns out that there are about 10 swing states. Of these, if any of 5 go for Obama, the election is all but over.

Here's the math: If we take the present polling, and remove the following 10 states, that leaves Obama with 250 electorial votes. Since Obama needs 269 electoral votes to win, that means that any combination amounting to 19 votes will win the election for Obama; otherwise it goes to McCain (who needs 270 electorial votes to win).

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state

electors

polls close (edt)

decisive

indicative

2004 election time "called" uselectioatlas.org

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VA	13	19:00		*	20:41
FL	27	19:00	*		24:27
OH	20	19:30	*		01:00
NC	15	19:30		*	20:22
MO	11	20:00		?	22:16
CO	9	21:00			24:22
MN	10	21:00			04:38
IN	11	18:00 or 19:00		*	19:00
NV	4	21:00			11:34 AM
NH	4	19:00			(called after 11:34 AM)

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Looking at the list, Florida and Ohio each have enough electors to bring the total to 250. Three other states, Virginia, North Carolina and MO don't have enough electors, but it's difficult to conceive of these states going for Obama while McCain retains the rest. Therefore, the election can be "called" for Obama from any of the first 5 states in the list.

Indiana is an outlier, but based on 2004 results, we may hear their results before Florida and Virginia. Indiana polls for McCain by about 10 points more than the national average, so if Indiana goes with Obama, there's no reasonable possibility for McCain to win.

The math for McCain is a little more complicated. McCain has a comfortable hold on 164 delegates. Essentially, he has to pick up another 106 but it's easier to look at this in terms of whether Obama can pick up the 19 electors from the above list.

Looking at the numbers, if Obama fails to get the first 3 (Virginia, Florida, Ohio), then North Carolina and IN will also go with McCain. That leaves Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and New Hampshire. That means Obama would have to get New Mexico and two other states. (He could get Colorado and two other states, but if Obama takes Colorado, he also takes New Mexico.)

This is also the math for McCain, except taken in the negative. If Obama fails to get one of the first 3 (Virginia, Florida, Ohio) then unless Obama takes New Mexico, or Colorado and two other states, McCain wins.

The confusing part is that, if Obama wins any one of the first 5 states in this list, Biden is elected Vice President. If McCain wins the first 4 states and particular combinations of Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and New Hampshire, Sarah Palin is elected Vice President. We're talking about a negative here (in the calculation; I leave to the reader to decide which candidate is 'the negative'), so the final indications if McCain wins the first 4 are still unclear. Missouri isn't taken into account for McCain because if he takes Ohio and Virginia, he will also take Missouri.

The times are poll closing times. We can expect exit polls, but in each of the critical states, the numbers will be too close. Regardless, the media will combine exit polls with a few results in key districts to render outcomes shortly after the closing time. During the primaries, Virginia was called for Obama 1/2 hour before the polls closed, so that science is out there.

The way I see it, Virginia will probably be the indicator. Ohio will have its results from Cuyahoga County sometime before 10-December. North Carolina doesn't matter because the results from Virginia will probably be in by the time North Carolina reports, but it is possible that North Carolina will beat Virginia. Florida will probably await the Supreme Court's determination. So if Virginia doesn't go with Obama, it could still be a long night.

The media calling the Virginia primary based on exit polls was an error. (The Northern Virginia polls closed 1/2 hour late due to wx.) Nevertheless, we can expect results substantially before the West Coast polls close at 20:00 (8PM), PST. (Virginia's polls close at 16:00 PST.)

A better example is Maine, in 2004. Their results were "called" when the polls closed at 20:00 (8PM) for Portland and the "At Large" (statewide) districts, but the Northern District (which is also part of the "At Large" district) wasn't "called" until 24:44. Obviously, if the results are close, the "early results" come in late. (In the case of New Mexico, the state was not "called" until absentee ballots were counted a few days after the election.)

West Virginia isn't on the list, but in 2004, Indiana and West Virginia provided the earliest results of any of the states whose outcome is presently uncertain. West Virginia is leaning toward Obama, but I don't think the outcome there is a significant prediction, except for about 5 electorial votes.

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McCain

McCain's efforts in Pennsylvania makes a McCain win in this state commonwealth an indicator of a likely McCain victory. This of course would require a major shift in the election trends, but similar events had happened in past elections. The reason I list it as "partially indicative" is that this would involve a very significant change from the pre-election polling, with no matching of pre-election polls with election results.

state

electors

polls close (edt)

partially indicative

2004 election time "called" uselectioatlas.org

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PA

21

20:00

*

20:49

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Caveats and Notes

This list was prepared on 9-Oct-08. This won't work if there's a major change in the nation's politics between now and then. Essentially a "major change" would be some major international event such as a major terrorist attack on the United States, or the capture of Osama Bin Ladin. Or for that matter Osama Bin Ladin joining the Democratic or Republican party. It's difficult to second guess how people would react to such events but remember that something as trivial as Hillary Clinton choking up in New Hampshire made a difference in the next day's election.

21-October - McCain Shifting Campaign from Swing States to Emphasize Pennsylvania

At first this seems to be a desparate move, but if there is an "October Surprise", particularly relating to international events, this could make sense. That could make Pennsylvania, presently favoring Obama by 12+ points, a "swing state". The question is whether this is based on actual knowledge by the McCain camp or is just an evaluation that an unexpected event is a best bet for McCain.

As to recent polling data, the best information is at electoral-vote.com (updates 08:00 ET), PBS/NPR and NY Times, with RealClearPolitics.com providing listings of the most recent individual polls. (electoral-vote.com and RealClearPolitics.com apply a "last 7 days" formula to their maps, which displays more dynamic results. Both ignore partisan polls.)

Some of the details are not researched.

Current poll closing times for the listed states, are taken from 2004. I determined poll closing times are not critical for the basic premise of the above chart. (The times are as listed by uselectioatlas.org).

Typically poll closing times do not change with the yearly purchase of new voting machines (without the paper record option to save money), but there are no guarantees here. Currently, the move is toward early voting, under the Washington State model, and vote-by-mail, as done in Oregon.

A more significant difference is when the close states are "called" by news organisations. States that were "called" early, such as Virginia in the 2008 primaries, were already predicted by exit polls. (If sample exit polls match pre-election polls, news organisations will "call" the election for that state if the results exceed a margin of error.) States with close results are not "called" early. This doesn't affect the prediction of the national election based on "swing states", but does mean that (for example) if Virginia is close, we won't see the results at 7:01 PM.

Virginia is in fact a good example. Each county (or city) selects its own voting techniques (although rules for evaluating "hanging chad" ballots on recount are uniform). There's nothing inherent in Virginia's voting that lends itself to early results, and in fact Virginia's results do not come in sooner than those of other states. What is clear is that Virginia doesn't publish its unofficial tallies 1/2 hour before the polls close.

Continuing with the Virginia example, if Virginia (or any other of the critical states) is "called", this affects the national electorial results.

Unlike 2004, there is less voter anticipation of vote fraud. In 2004 a disproportionate number of Kerry voters voted early in the day in some areas, so early exit polls were skewed. This year there are complaints about voter registration and voter ID requirements, but nothing that should affect time of day. That means that exit polling will be reasonably accurate.

So this won't be a case of "we'll either know or have a preview of the results at 7:01 PM when the Virginia results come in." It's not especially likely we'll have the Virginia results at 7:01.

Voting

Look up your local rules for voter ID requirements.

In general, for your first federal election, a photo ID is required. Most but not all states accept an affidavit in lieu of the required ID. If your ID does not match the voting district, also bring a utility bill (e.g., An out-of-state license probably is in a different district.) If you do not have a utility bill, bring a different bill, e.g., a credit card bill. Bring something with your local address on it, although in all likelihood you will not need it.

As to out-of-state ID, the idea is to show who you are; not whether you followed the rules regarding domicile for purposes of the driver's license laws. Point out that the only purpose of the license is to provide a "government-issued" ID, and that the other documentation (or affidavit), combined with voter registration establishes voter registration.

Bring your voter registration card if you are a first-time voter in the precinct.

Typically, previous voters are already on the voter rolls and need only meet local identification rules.

If there are any issues, try to get them resolved. If you fail, then submit a provisional ballot.

Presumably a provisional ballot has an explanation of what the issue is or at least sufficient information to identify the voter. Regardless, if you are able to resolve the issue at the polls, that resolves the issue.

Learn who the down-ballot candidates are. Write them down unless your memory is substantially better than mine.

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... and the Important Ballot Issue

San Francisco's Proposition R will, if passed, name the first public building after President George W. Bush. No early predictions here.

First posted 9-Oct-08. Last revised 29-Oct-08.