Threat Assessment Series Analytical and Predictive Tools: Societal Reaction to Terrorism Attack A Cursory Examination of Pre- and Post-11 Sep 2001 Crime Incident Data for Tucson, AZ [USA] * * * | Version 1.06 - Release 19 Jul 2005 Copyright 2002-4 by Lee Knoper All Rights Reserved i. Change Notice ---------------- This transmittal is a revised release; changes made since the previous release are denoted by a pipes symbol ("|") in column 1. ii. Distribution ---------------- Aside from "fair use" quotations, this copyrighted document may be freely copied and distributed ONLY in its complete and unaltered form, ONLY for strictly non-commercial purposes and ONLY if proper credit is given. Credit must note that the document is copyrighted, and must include the full title, version and release date, the author's name and e-mail address, and some indication of where it can be obtained. Example of a typical citation: "A Cursory Examination of Pre- and Post-11 Sep 2001 Crime | Incident Data for Tucson, AZ [USA]," version 1.06, release 19 Jul | 2005, copyright 2002-2005 by Lee Knoper . The current version is available at URL | . This document may NOT be distributed for financial gain, in whole or in part, either by itself or as part of another work. This document may be made available ONLY where it can be accessed by the general public without fee or fee based subscription. Its appearance in any given context should not be construed as an endorsement of that context, or of its responsible individuals. In case of questions concerning these limitations, contact the author at . iii. Status ----------- To check the current status of this publication, note the version number or release date in the title block above and refer to "Status of Papers > TCIDS" URL ------------------------------- Table of Contents i. Change Notice ii. Distribution iii. Status 1.0. Abstract 1.1. Introduction 2.0. Methodology 3.0. Data Qualifications 3.1. Raw Data 3.1.1. "Eight Month" Baseline/Aftermath Time Frame 3.1.1.1. Despair/Depression Data 3.1.1.2. Fear/Suspicion Data 3.1.1.3. Anger/Frustration Data 3.1.1.4. Aggression/Predation Data 3.1.2. "One Month" Time Frame 3.1.2.1. Despair/Depression Data 3.1.2.2. Fear/Suspicion Data 3.1.2.3. Anger/Frustration Data 3.1.2.4. Aggression/Predation Data 3.1.3. "Three Day" Time Frame 3.1.3.1. Despair/Depression Data 3.1.3.2. Fear/Suspicion Data 3.1.3.3. Anger/Frustration Data 3.1.3.4. Aggression/Predation Data 3.2. General Observations 3.3. Analysis 3.4. Comparative Summary 4.0. Conclusions Administrivia Revision Log ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A Cursory Examination of Pre- and Post-11 Sep 2001 Crime Incident Data for Tucson, AZ [USA] 1.0. Abstract. The effects on crime incident patterns of a terrorist attack may provide useful insights into the reaction of the general public. In turn, this information may influence decisions often made in personal preparedness endeavors. The stimuli for this study are the terrorist attacks that occurred on 11 Sep 2001 in New York City and Washington, DC. As a gauge of public reaction, this study peforms a cursory examination of crime incident data for Tucson, Arizona [USA] before and after those attacks. It treats those incidents as a paradigm shifting spike on the timeline. Pre- and post-11 Sep 2001 crime incident data in four classes of sociological phenomena are examined in three separate time frames. The four classes are: a) Despair/Depression, b) Fear/Suspicion, c) Anger/Frustration, and d) Aggression/Predation. The three time frames are: a) eight months before and eight months after 11 Sep 2001, b) one month before and one month after 11 Sep 2001, and c) three days before and three days after 11 Sep 2001. The conclusions support some of the assumptions often made in preparedness planning, and provide additional insights for emergency relocation decisions. 1.1. Introduction. In comprehensive personal preparedness planning, numerous assumptions often are made about societal responses to monumental events. These events range from earthquake and flood to terrorist acts, revolution, war and socioeconomic collapse. The planning assumptions usually are based on past experience with less spectacular events, or on a general understanding of human behavior, or are simply intuited (often with a personal flavor). However, actual evidence to support some of the more critical assumptions is weak or lacking. For example, whether to voluntarily relocate during an emergency can be a pendulous decision. The search for that evidence necessarily requires an investigation of past events. Ideally the evidence would include data from the affected population or at least a representative sample, and would reflect changes in its perceptions, responses, general activities and mental health as a result. The events of 11 Sep 2001 in the U.S. would seem to qualify. Although they occurred in the eastern part of the United States, the shock reverberated throughout the country. A number of possible data sets come to mind for judging public reaction - e.g., economics, mental health or crime data. The latter seems especially worthy of attention because of the tendency to think of the status of law enforcement and the criminal justice system as an indicator of society's resolve to remain orderly. This study examines crime incident information. Other researchers may choose to look at other data sets, or use other criteria, and may draw different conclusions. 2.0. Methodology. The metropolitan area selected for this study is Tucson, Arizona. The Census 2000 population stood at 486,699. There are approximately 750,000 people in the metro area; more generous estimates put the metro population closer to a million people. The object of this exercise was to discover whether crime incident patterns had changed as a result of the events of 11 Sep 2001. The crime incident data came from the Neighborhood Incident Database of the Tucson Police Department. Individuals who routinely engage in preparedness activities have expressed interest in several broad classes of sociological phenomena associated with a trigger event. Crime reporting data does not conveniently cover all of these phenomena, but four somewhat overlapping classes can be constructed: - Despair/Depression - Fear/Suspicion - Anger/Frustration - Aggression/Predation >From among the 260 Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) codes, 85 relevant categories were chosen and assigned to the above four sociological classes. The data for those categories were tabulated in three different time frames. The approach used in this study treats the terrorist activites of 11 Sep 2001 as a paradigm shifting spike on the timeline. Starting with an eight month "baseline/ aftermath" time frame, the data are examined in two progressively narrower time frames. The three time frames are: 1) eight months before and eight months after 11 Sep 2001, 2) one month before and one month after 11 Sep, and 3) three days before and three days after 11 Sep. For each of the time frames, the crime reporting data for the specified interval =following= the events of 11 Sep 2001 are compared with that for the same period =before= 11 Sep. The data were analyzed and the results were summarized. The classes of sociological phenomena and the associated UCR codes selected are listed in Table 1. Sociological UCR Classes Code Contributing Factors -------------------------------------------------------------------- Despair/ 2101 DUI/fatal accident Depression 2102 DUI/personal injury accident 2103 DUI/property damage only accident 2104 DUI/non-accident 2301 Intoxication/drunk in public 4003 Death/suicide 4004 Death/unknown causes 4101 Mental cases/transported to treatment facility 4102 Mental cases/other 4202 Sick cared for/attempted suicide Fear/ 1501 Weapons/carrying concealed Suspicion 1503 Weapons/illegal 1504 Weapons/other 5502 False alarm/business - silent 5503 False alarm/business - audible 5504 False alarm/residential - silent 5505 False alarm/residential - audible 5506 False alarm/other 5507 False alarm/unable to locate 5601 Suspicious activity/vehicle 5602 Suspicious activity/person 5603 Suspicious activity/other 5604 Suspicious activity/unable to locate Anger/ 0413 Aggravated assault/other - domestic Frustration violence (DV) 0911 Other assaults/minor injury - DV 0912 Other assaults/no injury - DV 2015 Offenses against family and children/custodial interference - DV 2401 Disorderly conduct/disturbing the peace 2402 Disorderly conduct/fighting 2403 Disorderly conduct/family fight 2405 Disorderly conduct/discharging firearms or fireworks 2411 Disorderly conduct/disturbing the peace - DV 2603 Other offenses/bomb threats 2614 Other offenses/other felonies - DV 2615 Other offenses/other misdemeanors - DV 5701 Disturbance - no further enforcement action/unable to locate 5702 Disturbance - no further enforcement action/no complainant 5703 Disturbance - no further enforcement action/no criminal violation 5704 Disturbance - no further enforcement action/peace restored 5705 Disturbance - no further enforcement action/other Aggression/ 0201 Sexual assault/rape female Predation 0203 Sexual assault/attempted rape 0301 Robbery/highway 0302 Robbery/commercial house 0303 Robbery/service station 0304 Robbery/convenience store 0305 Robbery/residence 0306 Robbery/banks 0307 Robbery/miscellaneous 0401 Aggravated assault/serious injury 0402 Aggravated assault/non-serious injury 0403 Aggravated assault/other 0501 Burglary/forcible entry 0502 Burglary/unlawful entry - no force 0503 Burglary/attempted forcible entry 0601 Larceny/pocket picking 0602 Larceny/purse snatching 0603 Larceny/shoplifting 0604 Larceny/from motor vehicles (except .05) 0605 Larceny/motor vehicle parts and accessories 0606 Larceny/bicycles 0607 Larceny/from residence 0608 Larceny/from building open to the public 0610 Larceny/all others 0701 Motor vehicle theft/stolen 0702 Motor vehicle theft/embezzlement 0801 Arson/residential structure 0802 Arson/business structure 0803 Arson/other structure 0804 Arson/vehicle 0805 Arson/other 0901 Other assaults/minor injury 0902 Other assaults/no injury 1001 Forgery & Counterfeiting/Forgery 1002 Forgery & Cnterfeiting/Cnterfeiting 1101 Frauds/bogus check 1102 Frauds/defrauding 1103 Frauds/confidence game 1104 Frauds/other 1201 Embezzlement/rental property 1202 Embezzlement/from employer 1203 Embezzlement/mortgaged property 1204 Embezzlement/other 1401 Criminal damage/malicious mischief 1402 Criminal damage/intentional vandalism Table 1. Sociological Classes and Contributing Factors (as Uniform Crime Reporting Elements). 3.0. Data Qualifications. This is a CASUAL STUDY ONLY. It is intended only to give some substance to perceptions about the effect of trigger events. It is NOT rigorous scientific research. It deals only with raw data - NOT CRIME RATES. This distinction bears mention lest anyone excitedly conclude that some crime rates skyrocketed or plummeted. There is no demographic adjustment or other statistical normalization. The TPD Neighborhood Incident Database logs police legwork, not adjudicated cases. Entries are subject to change following completion of an investigation or pending review by other authority. For privacy reasons, the incident data that can be released to the public does not include the incident clearance code. This code describes the current status of the incident. For example, the investigation of an incident may be complete, or it may have been referred to detectives for followup, or it may have been referred to department counsel for a decision on whether to initiate criminal prosecution. Again, the actual status of an incident is not of great concern in this context because the focus is on subjective indicators (hits) and prima facie ("on first sight") evidence. It should also be noted that the incident database is not the same as the 911 [emergency number] call log. Callers to 911 may inaccurately describe the perceived need for a LEO response. For example, what initially is described as a suspicious package may turn out to be an explosive device - or vice versa. Thus, while the 911 call log more accurately illustrates public perceptions, the incident database better describes how officers actually classified an incident following their investigation. Moreover, some calls for medical assistance automatically result in the dispatch of a law enforcement officer. Finally, the 911 call log does not include cases that were initiated by officers themselves, acting "on sight," whereas the incident database does include these cases. Table 14 [in Section 3.4 (Comparative Summary)], distills the many individual tables of raw data. In this table, the data in Time Frames 2 and 3 should be interpreted WITH CAUTION. These intervals are relatively short and contain fewer incidents (elevated data granularity). Thus, the effect of a small change in the number of incidents can appear to be disproportionately great. For example, a decrease in incidents from "1" to "0" is a change of -100%, which looks more dramatic (rate differentiation effect) than might realistically be perceived. The actual changes for such short intervals likely would be different (and certainly would be more reliable) for a larger sample population. In the context of prepareness endeavors, where worst case analyses often prevail, this effect is not particularly objectionable; in other contexts it would be rejected. Consult the actual incident counts in Tables 2 through 13 to better assess meaningfulness of these percentage changes. 3.1. Raw Data. This section presents the actual incident counts from the Neighborhood Incident Database. At the bottom of each table in the "Pre" and "Post" columns are listed the total number of incidents and the associated change. 3.1.1. "Eight Month" Baseline/Aftermath Time Frame. Data for the "Eight Month" baseline/aftermath time frame is examined first. "Pre" is the period 11 Jan 2001 to 10 Sep 2001 "Post" is the period 11 Sep 2001 to 10 May 2002 3.1.1.1. Despair/Depression Data. The following table tabulates the data for the "Despair/Depression" class of sociological phenomenon. Pre Post % Chg UCR Description ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 7 3 - 57 2101 DUI/fatal accident 173 187 + 8 2102 DUI/personal injury accident 264 269 + 2 2103 DUI/property damage only accident 1206 1299 + 8 2104 DUI/non-accident 40 37 - 8 2301 Intoxication/drunk in public 45 34 - 24 4003 Death/suicide 486 517 + 6 4004 Death/unknown causes 1205 1164 - 3 4101 Mental cases/transport to treatmt facility 176 179 + 2 4102 Mental cases/other 378 353 - 7 4202 Sick cared for/attempted suicide 3980 4042 - 2 <- Incident Totals and Percent Change Table 2. Eight Month "Despair/Depression" Incident Data. 3.1.1.2. Fear/Suspicion Data. The following table tabulates the data for the "Fear/Suspicion" class of sociological phenomenon. Pre Post % Chg UCR Description ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 153 142 - 7 1501 Weapons/carrying concealed 23 26 + 12 1503 Weapons/illegal 167 138 - 17 1504 Weapons/other 718 666 - 7 5502 False alarm/business - silent 8196 6294 - 23 5503 False alarm/business - audible 611 1704 +179 5504 False alarm/residential - silent 4850 4422 - 9 5505 False alarm/residential - audible 271 290 + 7 5506 False alarm/other 24 41 + 71 5507 False alarm/unable to locate 3090 3459 + 12 5601 Suspicious activity/vehicle 6928 6975 + 0 5602 Suspicious activity/person 2858 3071 + 8 5603 Suspicious activity/other 7385 7038 - 5 5604 Suspicious activity/unable to locate 35274 34266 - 3 <- Incident Totals and Percent Change Table 3. Eight Month "Fear/Suspicion" Incident Data. 3.1.1.3. Anger/Frustration Data. The following table tabulates the data for the "Anger/Frustration" class of sociological phenomenon. Pre Post % Chg UCR Description ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 218 196 - 10 0413 Aggravated assault/other - DV 2024 1766 - 13 0911 Other assaults/minor injury - DV 1472 1477 + 0 0912 Other assaults/no injury - DV 115 100 - 13 2015 Offenses agnst fmly & chil/cust interfer 1340 1524 + 14 2401 Disorderly conduct/disturbing the peace 253 288 + 14 2402 Disorderly conduct/fighting 410 384 - 6 2403 Disorderly conduct/family fight 216 186 - 14 2405 Disorderly conduct/disch firearms fwrks 521 551 + 6 2411 Disorderly conduct/disturb peace - DV 63 97 + 54 2603 Other offenses/bomb threats 25 14 - 44 2614 Other offenses/other felonies - DV 969 809 - 16 2615 Other offenses/other misdemeanors - DV 7019 7140 + 2 5701 Disturbance - NFEA/unable to locate 1201 1196 - 0 5702 Disturbance - NFEA/no complainant 5049 5244 + 4 5703 Disturbance - NFEA/no criminal violation 11971 12231 + 2 5704 Disturbance - NFEA/peace restored 1684 1624 - 4 5705 Disturbance - NFEA/other 34550 34827 + 1 <- Incident Totals and Percent Change Table 4. Eight Month "Anger/Frustration" Incident Data. 3.1.1.4. Aggression/Predation Data. The following table tabulates the data for the "Aggression/Predation" class of sociological phenomenon. Pre Post % Chg UCR Description ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 155 152 - 2 0201 Sexual assault/rape female 50 44 - 14 0203 Sexual assault/attempted rape 548 444 - 23 0301 Robbery/highway 147 133 - 10 0302 Robbery/commercial house 20 18 - 10 0303 Robbery/service station 138 94 - 32 0304 Robbery/convenience store 102 87 - 15 0305 Robbery/residence 47 43 - 9 0306 Robbery/banks 61 34 - 44 0307 Robbery/miscellaneous 6 3 - 50 0401 Aggravated assault/serious injury 149 145 - 3 0402 Aggravated assault/non-serious injury 1070 976 - 9 0403 Aggravated assault/other 2815 2976 + 6 0501 Burglary/forcible entry 1099 912 - 17 0502 Burglary/unlawful entry - no force 360 396 + 10 0503 Burglary/attempted forcible entry 37 20 - 46 0601 Larceny/pocket picking 85 98 + 15 0602 Larceny/purse snatching 6606 6553 - 1 0603 Larceny/shoplifting 4863 5877 + 21 0604 Larceny/from motor vehicles (except .05) 2053 2171 + 6 0605 Larceny/motor vehicle parts and access 632 558 - 12 0606 Larceny/bicycles 1285 1295 + 1 0607 Larceny/from residence 857 825 - 4 0608 Larceny/from building open to the public 3686 2987 - 19 0610 Larceny/all others 4274 4152 - 3 0701 Motor vehicle theft/stolen 364 322 - 12 0702 Motor vehicle theft/embezzlement 48 46 - 4 0801 Arson/residential structure 22 20 - 9 0802 Arson/business structure 17 12 - 29 0803 Arson/other structure 89 67 - 25 0804 Arson/vehicle 55 70 + 27 0805 Arson/other 2065 1932 - 6 0901 Other assaults/minor injury 1546 1492 - 4 0902 Other assaults/no injury 536 519 - 3 1001 Forgery & Counterfeiting/Forgery 145 229 + 58 1002 Forgery & Counterfeiting/Counterfeiting 246 319 + 30 1101 Frauds/bogus check 501 509 + 2 1102 Frauds/defrauding 22 23 + 5 1103 Frauds/confidence game 893 983 + 10 1104 Frauds/other 69 66 - 4 1201 Embezzlement/rental property 212 176 - 17 1202 Embezzlement/from employer 18 10 - 44 1203 Embezzlement/mortgaged property 23 24 + 4 1204 Embezzlement/other 6237 5250 - 16 1401 Criminal damage/malicious mischief 1169 1320 + 13 1402 Criminal damage/intentional vandalism 45422 44382 - 2 <- Incident Totals and Percent Change Table 5. Eight Month "Aggression/Predation" Incident Data. 3.1.2. "One Month" Time Frame. Next, data for the "One Month" time frame is examined. "Pre" is the period 11 Aug 2001 to 10 Sep 2001 (30 days) "Post" is the period 11 Sep 2001 to 10 Oct 2001 (30 days) 3.1.2.1. Despair/Depression Data. The following table tabulates the data for the "Despair/Depression" class of sociological phenomenon. Pre Post % Chg UCR Description ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 0 -100 2101 DUI/fatal accident 24 14 - 42 2102 DUI/personal injury accident 47 43 - 9 2103 DUI/property damage only accident 167 163 - 2 2104 DUI/non-accident 11 5 - 55 2301 Intoxication/drunk in public 7 5 - 29 4003 Death/suicide 62 65 + 5 4004 Death/unknown causes 160 150 - 6 4101 Mental cases/transported to treatment facility 30 25 - 17 4102 Mental cases/other 62 44 - 29 4202 Sick cared for/attempted suicide 571 515 - 10 <- Incident Totals and Percent Change Table 6. One Month "Despair/Depression" Incident Data. 3.1.2.2. Fear/Suspicion Data. The following table tabulates the data for the "Fear/Suspicion" class of sociological phenomenon. Pre Post % Chg UCR Description ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 14 25 + 79 1501 Weapons/carrying concealed 1 2 +100 1503 Weapons/illegal 21 14 - 33 1504 Weapons/other 108 91 - 16 5502 False alarm/business - silent 1150 953 - 17 5503 False alarm/business - audible 119 202 + 70 5504 False alarm/residential - silent 685 557 - 19 5505 False alarm/residential - audible 39 36 - 8 5506 False alarm/other 3 7 + 57 5507 False alarm/unable to locate 450 495 + 10 5601 Suspicious activity/vehicle 933 1059 +126 5602 Suspicious activity/person 396 441 + 11 5603 Suspicious activity/other 954 1004 + 8 5604 Suspicious activity/unable to locate 4873 4886 + 0 <- Incident Totals and Percent Change Table 7. One Month "Fear/Suspicion" Incident Data. 3.1.2.3. Anger/Frustration Data. The following table tabulates the data for the "Anger/Frustration" class of sociological phenomenon. Pre Post % Chg UCR Description ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 29 26 - 10 0413 Aggravated assault/other - DV 254 263 + 4 0911 Other assaults/minor injury - DV 175 193 + 10 0912 Other assaults/no injury - DV 21 22 + 5 2015 Offenses agnst fmly & chil/cust interfer 166 216 + 30 2401 Disorderly conduct/disturbing the peace 30 44 + 47 2402 Disorderly conduct/fighting 51 56 + 10 2403 Disorderly conduct/family fight 29 29 0 2405 Disorderly conduct/disch firearms fwrks 63 74 + 18 2411 Disorderly conduct/disturb peace - DV 7 32 +357 2603 Other offenses/bomb threats 3 4 + 33 2614 Other offenses/other felonies - DV 140 109 - 22 2615 Other offenses/other misdemeanors - DV 895 985 + 10 5701 Disturbance - NFEA/unable to locate 138 159 + 15 5702 Disturbance - NFEA/no complainant 673 727 + 8 5703 Disturbance - NFEA/no criminal violation 1482 1577 + 6 5704 Disturbance - NFEA/peace restored 200 247 + 24 5705 Disturbance - NFEA/other 4356 4763 + 10 <- Incident Totals and Percent Change Table 8. One Month "Anger/Frustration" Incident Data. 3.1.2.4. Aggression/Predation Data. The following table tabulates the data for the "Aggression/Predation" class of sociological phenomenon. Pre Post % Chg UCR Description ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 28 27 - 4 0201 Sexual assault/rape female 11 10 - 9 0203 Sexual assault/attempted rape 63 64 + 2 0301 Robbery/highway 8 22 +175 0302 Robbery/commercial house 0 0 0 0303 Robbery/service station 12 13 + 8 0304 Robbery/convenience store 11 18 + 55 0305 Robbery/residence 4 7 + 75 0306 Robbery/banks 12 5 - 58 0307 Robbery/miscellaneous 1 0 -100 0401 Aggravated assault/serious injury 19 20 + 5 0402 Aggravated assault/non-serious injury 122 165 + 35 0403 Aggravated assault/other 359 429 + 20 0501 Burglary/forcible entry 146 122 - 16 0502 Burglary/unlawful entry - no force 51 73 + 43 0503 Burglary/attempted forcible entry 8 2 - 75 0601 Larceny/pocket picking 4 10 +150 0602 Larceny/purse snatching 893 848 - 5 0603 Larceny/shoplifting 652 724 + 11 0604 Larceny/from motor vehicles (except .05) 241 262 + 9 0605 Larceny/motor vehicle parts and access 89 84 - 6 0606 Larceny/bicycles 181 162 - 11 0607 Larceny/from residence 102 103 + 1 0608 Larceny/from building open to the public 393 392 - 0 0610 Larceny/all others 445 591 + 33 0701 Motor vehicle theft/stolen 48 41 - 15 0702 Motor vehicle theft/embezzlement 4 8 +100 0801 Arson/residential structure 6 3 - 50 0802 Arson/business structure 2 2 0 0803 Arson/other structure 8 11 + 38 0804 Arson/vehicle 3 11 +267 0805 Arson/other 268 307 + 15 0901 Other assaults/minor injury 187 208 + 11 0902 Other assaults/no injury 54 66 + 22 1001 Forgery & Counterfeiting/Forgery 22 20 - 9 1002 Forgery & Counterfeiting/Counterfeiting 28 31 + 11 1101 Frauds/bogus check 68 58 - 15 1102 Frauds/defrauding 5 5 0 1103 Frauds/confidence game 119 133 + 12 1104 Frauds/other 6 15 +150 1201 Embezzlement/rental property 32 27 - 16 1202 Embezzlement/from employer 6 3 - 50 1203 Embezzlement/mortgaged property 5 6 + 20 1204 Embezzlement/other 705 761 + 8 1401 Criminal damage/malicious mischief 150 145 - 3 1402 Criminal damage/intentional vandalism 5575 6014 + 8 <- Incident Totals and Percent Change Table 9. One Month "Aggression/Predation" Incident Data. 3.1.3. "Three Day" Time Frame. Finally, data for the "Three Day" time frame is examined. "Pre" is the period 07 Sep 2001 to 10 Sep 2001 (3 days) "Post" is the period 11 Sep 2001 to 14 Sep 2001 (3 days) 3.1.3.1. Despair/Depression Data. The following table tabulates the data for the "Despair/Depression" class of sociological phenomenon. Pre Post % Chg UCR Description ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 0 0 0 2101 DUI/fatal accident 2 1 - 50 2102 DUI/personal injury accident 3 5 + 67 2103 DUI/property damage only accident 27 13 - 52 2104 DUI/non-accident 0 2 +200 2301 Intoxication/drunk in public 1 0 -100 4003 Death/suicide 3 8 +167 4004 Death/unknown causes 22 16 - 27 4101 Mental cases/transported to treatment facility 3 3 0 4102 Mental cases/other 6 1 - 83 4202 Sick cared for/attempted suicide 67 49 - 27 <- Incident Totals and Percent Change Table 10. Three Day "Despair/Depression" Incident Data. 3.1.3.2. Fear/Suspicion Data. The following table tabulates the data for the "Fear/Suspicion" class of sociological phenomenon. Pre Post % Chg UCR Description ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 0 3 +300 1501 Weapons/carrying concealed 0 0 0 1503 Weapons/illegal 3 3 0 1504 Weapons/other 15 9 - 40 5502 False alarm/business - silent 114 128 + 14 5503 False alarm/business - audible 30 12 - 60 5504 False alarm/residential - silent 48 46 - 4 5505 False alarm/residential - audible 6 9 + 50 5506 False alarm/other 0 0 0 5507 False alarm/unable to locate 55 51 - 7 5601 Suspicious activity/vehicle 103 110 + 7 5602 Suspicious activity/person 41 57 + 39 5603 Suspicious activity/other 90 97 + 8 5604 Suspicious activity/unable to locate 505 525 + 4 <- Incident Totals and Percent Change Table 11. Three Day "Fear/Suspicion" Incident Data. 3.1.3.3. Anger/Frustration Data. The following table tabulates the data for the "Anger/Frustration" class of sociological phenomenon. Pre Post % Chg UCR Description ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 4 2 - 50 0413 Aggravated assault/other - DV 31 27 - 13 0911 Other assaults/minor injury - DV 19 16 - 16 0912 Other assaults/no injury - DV 0 2 +200 2015 Offenses agnst fmly & chil/cust interfer 19 17 - 11 2401 Disorderly conduct/disturbing the peace 3 4 + 33 2402 Disorderly conduct/fighting 4 5 + 25 2403 Disorderly conduct/family fight 3 2 - 33 2405 Disorderly conduct/disch firearms fwrks 7 6 - 14 2411 Disorderly conduct/disturb peace - DV 1 9 +800 2603 Other offenses/bomb threats 0 0 0 2614 Other offenses/other felonies - DV 22 12 - 46 2615 Other offenses/other misdemeanors - DV 112 80 - 29 5701 Disturbance - NFEA/unable to locate 14 15 + 7 5702 Disturbance - NFEA/no complainant 70 60 - 14 5703 Disturbance - NFEA/no criminal violation 192 127 - 34 5704 Disturbance - NFEA/peace restored 26 19 - 27 5705 Disturbance - NFEA/other 527 403 - 24 <- Incident Totals and Percent Change Table 12. Three Day "Anger/Frustration" Incident Data. 3.1.3.4. Aggression/Predation Data. The following table tabulates the data for the "Aggression/Predation" class of sociological phenomenon. Pre Post % Chg UCR Description ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 7 4 - 43 0201 Sexual assault/rape female 1 0 -100 0203 Sexual assault/attempted rape 1 5 +400 0301 Robbery/highway 0 3 +300 0302 Robbery/commercial house 0 0 0 0303 Robbery/service station 0 0 0 0304 Robbery/convenience store 1 0 -100 0305 Robbery/residence 0 0 0 0306 Robbery/banks 1 0 -100 0307 Robbery/miscellaneous 0 0 0 0401 Aggravated assault/serious injury 4 4 0 0402 Aggravated assault/non-serious injury 15 15 0 0403 Aggravated assault/other 31 44 + 42 0501 Burglary/forcible entry 12 10 - 17 0502 Burglary/unlawful entry - no force 5 7 + 40 0503 Burglary/attempted forcible entry 0 1 +100 0601 Larceny/pocket picking 0 0 0 0602 Larceny/purse snatching 81 58 - 28 0603 Larceny/shoplifting 60 64 + 6 0604 Larceny/from motor vehicles (except .05) 18 37 +106 0605 Larceny/motor vehicle parts and access 8 7 - 13 0606 Larceny/bicycles 17 14 - 18 0607 Larceny/from residence 8 11 + 38 0608 Larceny/from building open to the public 37 33 - 11 0610 Larceny/all others 41 57 + 39 0701 Motor vehicle theft/stolen 4 5 + 25 0702 Motor vehicle theft/embezzlement 0 0 0 0801 Arson/residential structure 1 0 -100 0802 Arson/business structure 0 0 0 0803 Arson/other structure 0 1 +100 0804 Arson/vehicle 1 0 -100 0805 Arson/other 31 27 - 13 0901 Other assaults/minor injury 24 24 0 0902 Other assaults/no injury 2 9 +350 1001 Forgery & Counterfeiting/Forgery 6 3 - 50 1002 Forgery & Counterfeiting/Counterfeiting 3 7 +133 1101 Frauds/bogus check 7 8 + 14 1102 Frauds/defrauding 2 0 -200 1103 Frauds/confidence game 6 12 +100 1104 Frauds/other 0 7 +700 1201 Embezzlement/rental property 4 3 - 25 1202 Embezzlement/from employer 0 2 +200 1203 Embezzlement/mortgaged property 0 0 0 1204 Embezzlement/other 58 58 0 1401 Criminal damage/malicious mischief 16 11 - 31 1402 Criminal damage/intentional vandalism 513 551 + 7 <- Incident Totals and Percent Change Table 13. Three Day "Aggression/Predation" Incident Data. 3.2. General Observations. Several points bear mention: a. Almost from the outset of the 11 Sep 2001 incidents, there was a widespread perception that these were acts of terrorism. Moreover, there was a presumption that the perpetrators were extranationals. The result was to galvanize public hostility toward a foreign enemy. The reaction could be entirely different if the public widely perceived that the events were due to a domestic enemy or a government conspiracy, or if different events had occurred - for example, an economic collapse, or the use of a WMD or chem-bio weapons. b. Tucson AZ is quite distant from New York. Obviously, Tucson was not =directly= victimized by the events of 11 Sep 2001. Had the attacks occurred closer to Tucson, the results unquestionably would have been different and more significant. Thus, the Tucson experience is valid only as a sympathetic indicator of public reaction. c. It could be argued that post-11 Sep figures were skewed by increased LEO scrutiny. For some crime incident categories [e.g., UCR 5603 (Suspicious activity/other) and UCR 5702 (Disturbance - NFEA/no complainant)] this assertion probably is true, since LEAs presumably possessed confidential intelligence information, and LEOs "on sighted" many incidents rather than rely solely on citizen complaints. However, for many of the categories this elevated scrutiny was not unilateral; private citizens responded similarly [e.g., more "suspicious activity calls," arming themselves (illegally, for some), consciously avoiding potential threat locations or situations, etc.]. When serious but diffuse threats emerge, operational granularity decreases. All parties tend to see finer detail. d. This study was hastily designed and is admittedly quite simplistic. The "one month" and "eight month" time frames did not =exclude= data from the lesser time frames. That is, the "one month" time frame included the same data that was also used in the "three day" time frame. Similarly, the "eight month" time frame included data that was also used in the "one month" and "three day" time frames. This fact is extremely important. Some classes of sociological phenomenon saw great reductions in various categories of incidents in the "three day" time frame, but incidents in those same categories surged in the "one month" time frame. Thus, if the "one month" time frame =excluded= the "three day" data, then the surge in incidents would be that much more pronounced. Time constraints did not permit investigating this aspect; it will have to wait for a followup study. e. The mixed results in some classes of sociological phenomena suggest that the included categories of crime incidents may need to be adjusted. It is admittedly difficult to design a study of this nature when one has prior knowledge of caseload and disposition. If UCR categories are not chosen with some lattitude, the author could be accused of "cooking" the results. f. The aggravating and mitigating factors that would alter the crime incident picture are: a) Time, b) Distance from scene or affected area, c) Speed (rapidity of onset, rate of spread), d) Acceleration (escalation, exponentiation), e) Quantities involved (number of incidents, victims, doses), f) Perceived degree of enemy coordination, g) Fear (panic), h) Confidence in public and private sector abilities to respond, i) Countermeasures (e.g., lockdown), j) Unknowns, and k) Mob psychology. 3.3. Analysis. The events of 11 Sep 2001 unquestionably altered crime incident patterns in several categories. The following observations appear to be valid in the "one month" and "three day" time frames following 11 Sep. "Normal" figures are provided for some entries to help gauge the meaningfulness of change descriptors. + The "Despair/Depression" class shows fairly good trends and correlation among categories. - Suicides (UCR 4003, normally about 60/yr) were notably lower, although the numbers are small. - Deaths due to unknown causes (UCR 4004, normally about 730/yr) were markedly higher. Some of these may have been due to personal trauma or stress precipitated by the Tango activities. + Results in the "Fear/Suspicion" class were mixed. The number of incidents involving the illegal carry of weapons (UCR 1501, normally about 230/yr) increased =sharply= in the "one month" time frame. The number of suspicious activity incidents rose in all four categories (UCR 5507 and 5601-5604) - more than doubling in the Suspicious activity/person category (UCR 5602). - Immediately after the attacks, the number of business and residential silent alarms (UCR 5502, normally 1075/yr; and UCR 5504, normally 900/yr, respectively) decreased dramatically. This drop is probably due to people staying close to base (whether at work or at home) and monitoring media reports. However, after some degree of societal normality returned (the "one month" and "eight month" time frames), the number of silent residential false alarms soared. Some of these no doubt were "panic switch" alarms, while others may have occurred because of carelessness (preoccupation with current events). + The "Anger/Frustration" class of phenomenon was a mixed bag. In the "three day" time frame the number of incidents dropped sharply (a 24% decline associated with a mean of 465 incidents), but in the "one month" time frame it rebounded strongly (a 10% increase associated with a mean of 4560 incidents). The number of bomb threat incidents (UCR 2603) skyrocketed (normally it runs around 95/yr). Some of these probably were retaliatory in nature, directed at racial elements symbolically. The numbers of assault incidents in several categories initially took a dive (UCR 0413, normally about 325/yr; UCR 0911, normally about 3030/yr; and UCR 0912, normally about 2200/yr). + The "Aggression/Predation" class of sociological phenomenon likewise evidenced mixed results. - At first blush, incidents in two categories of robbery [UCR 0301 (Robbery/ highway) and UCR 0302 (Robbery/commercial house)] appear to have soared in the "three day" time frame. However, the actual numbers of incidents are small and the rates are therefore not very meaningful. - Conversely, the number of rapes and attempted rapes (UCR 0201 and 0203, respectively) appear to have dived, but here too the actual incident counts are small and the rates are not very meaningful. - The number of purse snatching incidents (UCR 0602) jumped, but also on weak numbers. - The number of burglaries involving forcible entry (UCR 0501, normally about 4200/yr) or attempted forcible entry (UCR 0503, normally about 525/yr) also jumped in the "three day" and "one month" time frames. Since many private citizens stayed at home to monitor media broadcasts during the "three day" time frame, most of these burglaries probably occurred at businesses after normal hours (subject to confirmation). - Larceny of motor vehicle parts (UCR 0605, normally about 3050/yr) doubled in the "three day" time frame, with solid numbers (37 incidents after 11 Sep 2001 versus 18 before). - Motor vehicle thefts (UCR 0701, normally 6400/yr) and motor vehicle embezzlements (UCR 0702, normally 525/yr) increased sharply. Vehicle thefts evidenced solid numbers - the 33% increase was associated with a mean of 518 incidents in the "one month" time frame, and the 39% increase was associated with a mean of 49 incidents in the "three day" time frame. - Forgeries (UCR 1001), bogus checks (UCR 1101) and other types of fraud (UCR 1104) increased noticeably in the "one month" time frame. - Embezzlement of rental property (UCR 1201) more than doubled. However, some of this increase might be attributed to long overdue property (carelessness due to preoccupation with current events) rather than intentional embezzlement. 3.4. Comparative Summary. Table 14 summarizes the raw data found in Tables 2 through 13, above. Percent Change [2] Class of Sociological Phenomena per Time Frame [3][4] and Contributing Elements [1] 1 2 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Despair/Depression 2101 - DUI/fatal accident - 57 -100 0 2102 - DUI/personal injury accident + 8 - 42 - 50 2103 - DUI/property damage only accident + 2 - 9 + 67 2104 - DUI/non-accident + 8 - 2 - 52 2301 - Intoxication/drunk in public - 8 - 55 +200 4003 - Death/suicide - 24 - 29 -100 4004 - Death/unknown causes + 6 + 5 +167 4101 - Mental cases/transport to treatment - 3 - 6 - 27 4102 - Mental cases/other + 2 - 17 0 4202 - Sick cared for/attempted suicide - 7 - 29 - 83 Average (based on change in total incidents) - 2 - 10 - 27 Fear/Suspicion 1501 - Weapons/carrying concealed - 7 + 79 +300 1503 - Weapons/illegal + 12 +100 0 1504 - Weapons/other - 17 - 33 0 5502 - False alarm/business - silent - 7 - 16 - 40 5503 - False alarm/business - audible - 23 - 17 + 14 5504 - False alarm/residential - silent +179 + 70 - 60 5505 - False alarm/residential - audible - 9 - 19 - 4 5506 - False alarm/other + 7 - 8 + 50 5507 - False alarm/unable to locate + 71 + 57 0 5601 - Suspicious activity/vehicle + 12 + 10 - 7 5602 - Suspicious activity/person + 0 +126 + 7 5603 - Suspicious activity/other + 8 + 11 + 39 5604 - Suspicious activity/unable to locate - 5 + 8 + 8 Average (based on change in total incidents) - 3 + 0 + 4 Anger/Frustration 0413 - Aggravated assault/other - DV - 10 - 10 - 50 0911 - Other assaults/minor injury - DV - 13 + 4 - 13 0912 - Other assaults/no injury - DV + 0 + 10 - 16 2015 - Offens agnst fmly & chld/cust interfer - 13 + 5 +200 2401 - Disord conduct/disturb peace + 14 + 30 - 11 2402 - Disord conduct/fighting + 14 + 47 + 33 2403 - Disord conduct/family fight - 6 + 10 + 25 2405 - Disord conduct/disch firearms firewrks - 14 0 - 33 2411 - Disord conduct/disturb peace - DV + 6 + 18 - 14 2603 - Other offenses/bomb threats + 54 +357 +800 2614 - Other offenses/other felonies - DV - 44 + 33 0 2615 - Other offenses/other misdemeanors - DV - 16 - 22 - 46 5701 - Disturbance/unable to locate + 2 + 10 - 29 5702 - Disturbance/no complainant - 0 + 15 + 7 5703 - Disturbance/no criminal violation + 4 + 8 - 14 5704 - Disturbance/peace restored + 2 + 6 - 34 5705 - Disturbance/other - 4 + 24 - 27 Average (based on change in total incidents) + 1 + 10 - 24 Aggression/Predation 0201 - Sexual assault/rape female - 2 - 4 - 43 0203 - Sexual assault/attempted rape - 14 - 9 -100 0301 - Robbery/highway - 23 + 2 +400 0302 - Robbery/commercial house - 10 +175 +300 0303 - Robbery/service station - 10 0 0 0304 - Robbery/convenience store - 32 + 8 0 0305 - Robbery/residence - 15 + 55 -100 0306 - Robbery/banks - 9 + 75 0 0307 - Robbery/miscellaneous - 44 - 58 -100 0401 - Aggravated assault/serious injury - 50* -100 0 0402 - Aggravated assault/non-serious injury - 3 + 5 0 0403 - Aggravated assault/other - 9 + 35 0 0501 - Burglary/forcible entry + 6 + 20 + 42 0502 - Burglary/unlawful entry - no force - 17 - 16 - 17 0503 - Burglary/attempted forcible entry + 10 + 43 + 40 0601 - Larceny/pocket picking - 46 - 75 +100 0602 - Larceny/purse snatching + 15 +150 0 0603 - Larceny/shoplifting - 1 - 5 - 28 0604 - Larceny/from motor vehicles + 21 + 11 + 6 0605 - Larceny/motor vehicle parts and access + 6 + 9 +106 0606 - Larceny/bicycles - 12 - 6 - 13 0607 - Larceny/from residence + 1 - 11 - 18 0608 - Larceny/from building open to public - 4 + 1 + 38 0610 - Larceny/all others - 19 - 0 - 11 0701 - Motor vehicle theft/stolen - 3 + 33 + 39 0702 - Motor vehicle theft/embezzlement - 12 - 15 + 25 0801 - Arson/residential structure - 4 +100 0 0802 - Arson/business structure - 9 - 50 -100 0803 - Arson/other structure - 29 0 0 0804 - Arson/vehicle - 25 + 38 +100 0805 - Arson/other + 27 +267 -100 0901 - Other assaults/minor injury - 6 + 15 - 13 0902 - Other assaults/no injury - 4 + 11 0 1001 - Forgery & Counterfeiting/Forgery - 3 + 22 +350 1002 - Forgery & Cnterfeiting/Cnterfeiting + 58 - 9 - 50 1101 - Frauds/bogus check + 30 + 11 +133 1102 - Frauds/defrauding + 2 - 15 + 14 1103 - Frauds/confidence game + 5 0 -200 1104 - Frauds/other + 10 + 12 +100 1201 - Embezzlement/rental property - 4 +150 +700 1202 - Embezzlement/from employer - 17 - 16 - 25 1203 - Embezzlement/mortgaged property - 44 - 50 +200 1204 - Embezzlement/other + 4 + 20 0 1401 - Criminal damage/malicious mischief - 16 + 8 0 1402 - Criminal damage/intentional vandalism + 13 - 3 - 31 Average (based on change in total incidents) - 2 + 8 + 7 Footnotes: [1] The number associated with the contributing element is the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) number. [2] The "Percent Change" figures are rounded to the nearest integer. A polarity sign (-/+) associated with a "0" entry means that the change was greater than zero but less than 0.5. The absence of a polarity sign for a "0" entry means that the change was, in fact, zero. [3] The three specific time frames, in DD-MMM-YY format, are: Frame "Before" (Chg) "After" 1 <11 Jan 01 to 10 Sep 01> -/+ % <11 Sep 01 to 10 May 02> 2 <11 Aug 01 to 10 Sep 01> -/+ % <11 Sep 01 to 10 Oct 01> 3 <07 Sep 01 to 10 Sep 01> -/+ % <11 Sep 01 to 14 Sep 01> [4] Because of elevated data granularity, the figures in Time Frames 2 and 3 should be interpreted with caution. Table 14. Changes in Tucson, AZ, Selected Crime Incidents Following the Terrorist Attacks of 11 Sep 2001. 4.0. Conclusions. Data from the "three day" time frame offers some useful insights into general public reaction following a terrorist attack: - In general, public reaction downplayed helplessness and despair - probably tending more toward revulsion and resolve instead (speaking more from hindsight here). - Unexpected deaths (stress related), perhaps to include loved ones, may introduce grief and additional hardship at a time when societal response capabilities may be impaired or unavailable. - Elevated thefts of vehicles and of vehicle parts and accessories poses a security concern for personal motor vehicles and perhaps utility trailers. - Fear and suspicion increased only slightly on balance, but in some categories it jumped. - Anger and frustration dropped sharply (but also rebounded strongly thereafter). [See important note in Comments 1(d), above.] - Some types of criminal predation dropped while others increased significantly. Rape incidents were down; other crimes involving hostile encounter were markedly higher, although on weak numbers - possibly suggesting opportunism by low level predators. It should be assumed that predator activity will increase and that more predators than usual will be armed. Some businesses and residences (presumably occupied) experienced sharp drops in burglary and larceny, while others (presumably unoccupied) experienced comparably strong increases in these crimes. After the first three days, however, the picture changed dramatically. Within the following few weeks, fear and suspicion surged, as shown by the number of weapons incidents and suspicious activity incidents. Minor assaults increased. Public disturbances and family problems increased sharply. Robberies of banks, commercial establishments and residences jumped upwards. If your areas of operation are not affected by a terrorist incident, then the above realizations suggest staying at home base during the first 72 hours to protect preparedness assets. On the other hand, the initial confusion following an attack, coupled with the latency of criminal predation and the tendency of the public to stay home, arguably makes this interval the BEST one during which to relocate. (This conundrum deserves further exploration to identify the exacerbating and mitigating factors.) With the passage of time, though - and especially when more terrorist attacks materialize - it should be expected that the reaction of law enforcement will accelerate, become more practiced and probably also more intrusive. Similarly, the criminal element may react more quickly following this learning exercise. Every significant incident and every major operation is intensely studied by someone, somewhere...with an eye to controlling the outcome of similar future events - whether to altruistically provide relief, or to manipulate according to some other agenda. Usually these analysts have good C4I assets and adeptly use them. Knowing the public responses to many specific stimuli enables an OpFor to play the range of probabilities as skillfully as a virtuoso plays a piano. Future attacks may evidence greater diversity of type and method. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Administrivia. Please advise the author or resource maintainer of any errors or omissions so that this resource can be properly maintained. If this file is made available online for download, the author respectfully asks that the following filenames be used if at all possible (where "8x3" refers to the traditional DOS filenaming convention and "Ext" refers to extended filenaming systems): 8x3: tcids106.txt (or filename extension of archiver) Ext: tcids-1.0.6.txt (or filename extension of archiver) Changes made since the previous release are denoted by a pipes symbol ("|") in column 1. [Minor (patch level) changes do not require a filename change.] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Revision Log See the pipes symbol ("|") in column 1 for the most recent changes. Note that interim revisions may not have been released. Release_Date Vers Description_of_Revisions 19 Jul 2005 1.06 Changed URLs to reflect current position at Web site. 20 Dec 2002 1.05 Changed URLs to reflect current position at Web site. Added "Threat Assessment Series" header. 28 Aug 2002 1.04 Changed URLs to reflect change in Web site location. 16 Jun 2002 1.03 Added "appearance" disclaimer in ii (Distribution). 10 Jun 2002 1.02 Minor syntax and typographical errors corrected. 01 Jun 2002 1.01 Minor syntax and typographical errors corrected; additional comment added in Sec 4.0 (Conclusions). 31 May 2002 1.00 Initial release. -30- Document owner: Lee Knoper You are viewing URL: Page last modified: 1619 UTC / 19 Jul 2005 Copyright 2002-2005 by Lee Knoper - All rights reserved